UCIMU Forecasts 2025: Stable Production, Weak Exports, and Modest Domestic Recovery

RICCARDO ROSA

With 140 Italian exhibitors, Italy represents the second-largest foreign delegation at EMO HANNOVER 2025, running from September 22 to 26 at the German exhibition centre. This strong participation reflects the confidence of Italy’s machine tool, robotics, and automation sector in one of the most influential global industry events. The next edition will return to Italy as EMO MILAN 2027, scheduled from October 4 to 8.

During a press conference on September 23, UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE – the association of Italian machine tool, robot, and automation manufacturers – presented its revised forecasts for 2025. According to UCIMU president Riccardo Rosa, the sector is expected to generate €6.34 billion in production (+0.2%), remaining virtually flat compared to 2024. The outlook has been weighed down by declining exports and sluggish domestic activity.

Exports are forecast to reach €3.89 billion, a steep 8.9% drop from last year, with broad declines across major markets except Poland, Mexico, Switzerland, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia – though the latter two still represent relatively small volumes. Domestic deliveries, however, are projected to rise by 19.1% to €2.45 billion, supported by a 14.1% increase in local consumption, albeit from a low base.

“Despite the positive numbers at home, overall demand remains fragile,” said Mr Rosa. “The sector is experiencing irregular fluctuations rather than a clear growth trajectory, reflecting ongoing global and regional instability.”

From January to June 2025, Italian machine tool exports fell 13.3% compared to the first half of 2024, with the largest declines in Germany (-28.1%), India (-14.1%), and France (-7.5%). The United States remained the top export destination, absorbing €292 million worth of machines (-4.2%). Rosa highlighted the difficult situation in Europe, particularly Germany, where challenges in the automotive and construction industries are directly impacting Italian suppliers.

Mr Rosa also expressed concern over global uncertainty, including U.S. tariff discussions, which have slowed decision-making across multiple export markets. He called for a renewed industrial policy beyond 2025 to support manufacturing competitiveness, noting that the ongoing Transition 5.0 incentives have helped but remain insufficient to sustain momentum. UCIMU has pledged to work with the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy on drafting a streamlined policy that merges Industry 4.0 and 5.0 measures for easier adoption by companies.