Shell has unveiled a new India-focused scenarios sketch titled “India’s Energy Transition in a Security-Focused Age” at the World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS) 2026 organised by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). The analysis explores how India can meet growing energy demand while strengthening security, affordability, reliability and decarbonisation.
The report outlines three potential futures shaped by geopolitics, digitalisation and climate priorities. Two scenarios—Archipelagos and Surge—reflect current global pressures, examining energy security in terms of national resilience, self-reliance and technological capability. A third scenario, Horizon, focuses on climate and environmental priorities aligned with global climate commitments. Together, these perspectives aim to help policymakers, industry and civil society assess options for building a competitive and resilient energy system.
Mansi Madan Tripathy, Senior Vice President, Shell Lubricants APAC and Chairperson of Shell Group of Companies in India, said India faces a critical phase as energy demand rises alongside economic growth. She noted that balancing security, affordability and decarbonisation will require coordinated action and long-term planning across sectors.
The study notes that India’s energy demand has risen nearly 40 percent in the past decade and is expected to grow further as industrialisation and urbanisation continue. Renewable energy capacity and electrification have expanded rapidly, with solar and wind accounting for a growing share of electricity consumption. Low-carbon fuels, bioenergy and hydrogen are expected to play an increasing role in sectors that are difficult to electrify.
Natural gas and LNG are highlighted as transition fuels supporting grid stability during renewable expansion. The analysis also points to the importance of carbon capture, natural sinks and industrial efficiency in reducing emissions from hard-to-abate sectors.
Growth in manufacturing and services is expected to drive future energy demand, while transport electrification and cleaner fuels for aviation and shipping are likely to reduce oil dependence over time. Mallika Ishwaran, Chief Economist at Shell, said the scenarios are intended to help decision-makers prepare for uncertainty and plan for long-term resilience.
The report identifies key priorities for the coming decade, including scaling renewable power and grid infrastructure, accelerating electric mobility, supporting low-carbon industrial technologies, maintaining transition fuels where necessary, and encouraging investment in carbon removal solutions. Shell said the scenarios aim to inform dialogue on building a secure, affordable and sustainable energy future for India.
