Indian steel mills have held steady on hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to Southeast Asia and the Middle East throughout July and August, despite weak global market conditions and stiff pricing competition from China. The outlook for September remains bleak, with little sign of improvement in demand or pricing.
Export offers to Europe have also been slow to recover, with no significant deals closed in August. However, a slight increase in demand is anticipated in September. Currently, Indian steel mills are offering HRC at an average price of $540 per tonne, compared to $500–512 per tonne from China and $545 per tonne from Russia.
Market participants express concern that Chinese offers, sometimes priced below production costs, are making Indian exports uncompetitive in certain markets. Additionally, imports from Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries like South Korea have surged, with a reported year-on-year increase of over 100% for the April–July period.
India’s market share in steel exports has been declining, with sales to major markets such as the European Union, the UK, and the Middle East all experiencing drops. According to a report by consultancy firm BigMint (formerly SteelMint), HRC export offers to the Middle East fell by $10–15 per tonne week-on-week, landing at around $500 per tonne, compared to previous levels of $510–515 per tonne. In some cases, Chinese offers were as low as $485 per tonne, rendering Indian offers of approximately $550 per tonne unviable.
In Vietnam, Chinese HRC offers dropped by $10 per tonne to $485 per tonne, while Indian mills saw no buying interest in August. Meanwhile, Indian HRC export offers to Europe remained stable at around $620 per tonne, though price fluctuations may occur depending on shifts in demand.
On the domestic front, rebar prices—used primarily in construction—are expected to rise by approximately ₹1,000 per tonne in September. Prices currently range from ₹45,200 per tonne for induction furnace-produced rebar to around ₹50,000 per tonne for blast furnace-produced rebar. Despite low demand and trade discounts offered in August, the expected price hike is driven by low production levels, with some mills planning maintenance shutdowns. The ability to maintain this price increase will largely depend on market demand.
